Experiments

What we tested, what failed, what survived, and why. Gridiron Signal keeps negative results, because a failed model is evidence too. Most of what follows is a model that did not earn its place — that is the point, not an embarrassment.

Research Lab — technical archive

The immutable record beneath the summaries above: every historical model decision, including NULL results and near-misses, plus the current independent-audit disposition where one exists. Historical packets remain immutable; an audit overlay can supersede their public meaning without rewriting them. Raw packets and overlays: experiments.json

Reading the machine verdicts

RETAIN_BASELINE — no challenger beat the incumbent; the honest null. PROMOTE_TO_RESEARCH — earned research status; Research Lab visibility, no public leaderboards. INDIVIDUAL_RESEARCH_VALUES_PERMITTED — individual estimates may appear as research, always with their identifiability evidence and cross-family disagreement attached. When both current and historical verdicts appear, the current independent-audit verdict governs.

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